Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has less than two weeks remaining to form a new Government. If he fails, President Reuven Rivlin faces the decision whether to grant Netanyahu a two-week extension or choose someone else to try to form a new Government. Alternatively, Rivlin can dissolve the Knesset and call new elections, Israel’s fifth in just over two years. One will need to observe every move that Netanyahu makes from the vantage point of a person who desperately is trying to maneuver the cabinet chairs to stay in power—and avoid the possibility of going to jail.
To date, Netanyahu has failed to gain a firm 61 seats for a Knesset Majority. Some of his natural allies including Naftali Bennett from the Yemina (New Right Part) and Gideon Saar from the New Hope Party have balked to joining Bibi. In fact, these right-wing parties—formerly Likud members—have signaled their possible interest in joining a unity government which could include parties on the left. The critical question for these parties is whether they will have a better opportunity to gain power in a fifth election than they have now.
Netanyahu’s current tactic appears to be to exploit policy issues and political interests in order to demonstrate that he remains the only savvy political leader on the Israeli horizon. He wants to project himself as a likely bigger winner of the looming fifth election. His strategy involves personal considerations, domestic issues, and security concerns.
On a strategic level, recent events have played to Netanyahu’s strongest card. The rising tension in Jerusalem, the shelling from Gaza, the missile launched from Syria into the Negev, and the continuing naval jockeying with Iran, makes Netanyahu’s consistently hardline position acceptable to a broad right-wing base. Many of those on the right rejected Netanyahu in the fourth round of elections in which Likud only won 30 seats versus 36 seats which it held in the previous Knesset. When there is any type of geopolitical tension, Israelis like to fall back on the trusted leader and not to experiment with a new prime minister.
Domestically Netanyahu had a mixed record in the eyes of most of the public in how he conducted Israel’s battle against the pandemic. Despite a number of too rapid re-openings and serious protests and disregard of the restrictions on the part of many of the ultra-orthodox (charedi) Jewish community, over 60% of Israelis have received a vaccine and approximately 50% have completed their vaccination sequence. Netanyahu managed to obtain large quantities of the vaccines and organized the vaccination process very effectively.
There are now serious tensions with Arabs in Jerusalem which have produced marches and attacks from both Jewish and Arab groups. As Netanyahu has courted many of the leaders of some of these right-wing, racist, extremists he is hard put to restrict their efforts to undermine the Arabs. In addition, Netanyahu suggested that he is considering inviting one of the more conservative Arab groups to join a possible coalition. This has energized the right-wing religious followers even more to balk at entering such a Government.
Netanyahu has also seen the U.S.-Israel relationship being strained by speeches given at the recent J Street Conference which suggested placing restrictions on U.S. aid to Israel. This recommendation is opposed by an overwhelming number of Members of Congress from both parties. Bibi, nevertheless, must deal with the fallout from these remarks at the same time as he considers his initial, formal interaction with the Biden Administration. This would require a non-confrontational approach, despite Washington’s desire to reconnect in some form with a revised agreement with Iran to control its nuclear development.
In the middle of all this political jockeying, the Netanyahu’s corruption trial is not getting any prettier. Witnesses have painted Bibi as having had an insatiable desire to control the media and a willingness to pay any price to sustain power. While the defense has not begun to present its argument, the public is aware that Netanyahu needs political power to defer his inevitable legal confrontation.
At this juncture, Netanyahu does not seem to have the votes to assemble a viable coalition. Another election appears on the immediate horizon, with the additional wrinkle that President Reuven Rivlin’s term as President of Israel expires a July 5. A new President also will need to be selected by the Israeli Parliament before then, with new elections only occurring after the new President assumes office.
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