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KAHNTENTIONS

KAHNTENTIONS is a blog post written by Gilbert N. Kahn, Professor of Political Science at Kean University in Union, New Jersey. Beginning in 2011 KAHNTENTIONS was hosted by the New Jersey Jewish News which recently ceased written publication. KAHNTENTIONS presents an open and intellectually honest analysis of issues facing the United States, Israel, as well as Jews world-wide.

BY GILBERT N. KAHN

"These are the times that try men's souls."

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Bibi Still is Following Trump


There was considerable commentary over the past four years about the similarity between President Donald Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Most of that discussion related to a perception that both men shared a common view on regional policy in the Middle East. This was visible with respect to Israel’s relationship with the Palestinians and especially in terms its interest in a peace process. The Netanyahu Government made very little effort to foster dialogue with the Palestinians and received scant interest from the Trump Administration.


Most importantly both men shared an apparent skepticism or downright rejection of the Iranian nuclear agreement reached by the P5+1and Iran. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was always a non-starter for Israel and quickly was abandoned by the Trump Administration. Both Governments sought increased Iranian sanctions and inspections. They wanted to increase the pressure on Iran as the strategy for reducing its nuclear desires. Both Governments rejected the agreement for not demanding more conditions and compliance from the Iranian regime. With the Biden Administration now moving to reestablish at least a dialogue with the Iranians this week in Vienna as well as moving to renew contacts with the Palestinian Authority, U.S. policy in the region appears to be resembling more closely to policies pursued by the Obama Administration, and was supported by many Republican as well as Democrats at the time.


There is, however, a more obnoxious similarity between Trump and Netanyahu which was always observed in the past but perhaps has now reached its nadir in the aftermath of the recent Israeli election. The two leaders always shared a serious sympathy for authoritarian rule although Trump clearly rejected democracy while Bibi sought to manipulate it as duplicitously as he was able. In his previous career, Trump had a history of employing the most unscrupulous methods in running his real estate business and was regularly conducting many of his numerous ventures close to the edge. Prior to his entering politics, the former president repeatedly ensnarled in legal battles as he sought to manipulate the law. All the pending lawsuits in which he is now engaged in New York, in Georgia, and even those which are smoldering at the federal level, are mere continuation of the pattern that Trump had pursued in his prior personal career and personal life. Trump’s unusually successful model with the American legal system was undoubtedly a model which Netanyahu admired and has been trying to emulate in Israel as well.

For the Israeli Prime Minister, there are reports that should he fail now to gain the leadership of a new governing coalition, he has a new strategy to avoid jail. In order to escape an actual trial and possible conviction, he is reported to have devised perhaps the most outrageous escape to avoid jail that either of these two men ever designed.


Netanyahu has been facing a series of three different major corruption cases in the Israeli courts for a long time, but as long he was Prime Minister, he had avoided trial. Now that the Attorney General ruled that he must stand trial—the formal phase which now has begun—Bibi has a new plan; to be selected to succeed Reuven Rivlin as President. This too could enable him to avoid prosecution and an actual jail sentence.


Following Israel’s fourth election in two years, Netanyahu now apparently only has narrow path to regain the premiership. He may still lead the Likud Party and there indeed may be many incoming Knesset Members on the right, who, although unwilling to assist him in cobbling together a viable future governing coalition, might vote to make him president. So with the Israel Presidency due to become vacant and President Reuven Rivlin unlikely to seek a second term, Israeli politics could take a turn that even Donald Trump could not have created.


An effort to remove Netanyahu from the position of leader of the Likud Party and the Prime Minister position might be sufficiently enticing to those on the right that they would agree to select Bibi to be the next President of Israel. Netanyahu would thus be kept immune from further prosecution for another seven years, at least.


Netanyahu has been in politics most of his adult life. He had great highs as Treasury Minister and in many of his years as Prime Minister. At his best, unlike Trump, he was a very intelligent, and clever politician. Now he is facing the ignominious prospect of a jail sentence, as could his political soul mate Donald Trump, but Bibi may well have devised the most ingenious solution yet to avoid going to jail. Undoubtedly, it will create an earthquake in Israeli politics, but it could actually work.

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