Israel’s successful killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran may well be one of the most extraordinary maneuvers ever executed by the Israeli Mossad. The ability to surgically blow-up Haniyeh’s guest room in Teheran killing only Haniyeh and his body guide was truly remarkable.
Israel knows, however, that this success could well come at a high cost. While the Israeli people may be ready and primed for whatever form Iran and Hamas will chose to retaliate, the consequences of this espionage operation appear to have further set back any effort to obtain a cease-fire in Gaza and the return of the Israeli hostages.
Israel also recognizes the extent to which their successful killing of Haniyeh in Teheran affected the Iranians. It is not exclusively the invasion of their capital on a special inauguration day for their new president, nor because it demonstrated the porousness of Iranian intelligence, nor the extraordinary capability of the Israeli intelligence operatives. Haniyeh’s killing was a personal insult to Persian hospitality and cultural/social norms. It was a grave insult to the Supreme Leader as well as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard that a guest in their own “home” could be eliminated right in front of their own eyes.
Overriding the scope and extent of Iran’s decision to respond to the Israeli killing of the political leader of Hamas was their own self-image in the Muslim world which has been greatly besmirched. For Muslims—both individually as well as nationally—one’s self-image and “face” is critical. It was grossly shattered by this assassination. It also ratchetted up the need for Iran to find an appropriate way to retaliate.
For Jews throughout the world, next Monday night and Tuesday, is Tisha B’Av on the Jewish calendar. It commemorates the destruction in Jerusalem of the First Temple in 586 BCE by the Babylonians and of the Second Temple in 70 CE by the Romans. Observing a day of mourning and fasting, Jews remember the destruction of the Temples as well as other persecutions which have befallen the Jewish people throughout their history, including the Holocaust. Many enemies of the Jewish people, including the Spanish Inquisition and the Shoah, have understood the significance of this date in Jewish history. Many in Israel, therefore, are bracing for an Iranian response to be forthcoming conceivably also on Tisha B’Av, only compounding the sadness of this day
As for the nature of Iran’s response there are two variables which the Government in Teheran needs to weigh. If they launch a serious attack against population centers in Israel, the nature of the retaliation by Israel cum Western (read U.S.) forces could be shattering for Iran. If the Iranian response is measured and strictly against military targets—avoiding heavily populated areas—the likelihood of a major Israeli counter-response could well be quite modest as well.
A less likely possibility but not to be discounted would be an Iranian attack on an Israeli Embassy or installation outside of the country. Iran could also attack Israeli vessels in the Gulf.
For Israel, the dual assassinations last week, Haniyeh as well as the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, also raised the bar on what Hezbollah forces in Lebanon are contemplating in retaliation for his killing. If the response from the North remains a measured tit-for-tat along the border with Israel, it is likely that Israel will just continue with similar responses. Hezbollah also could choose to launch its attack on Tisha B’Av.
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Lest one assume that dangers facing Jews were strictly occurring in the Middle East, the overt as well as subtle attacks against Vice-President Kamala Harris’ serious consideration of a Jew as her running mate, drew significant protests from progressive Democrats. Much of the rhetoric and protests against the selection of Pennsylvania’s Jewish Governor Josh Shapiro as well as what was heard from some in the crowds at Harris’ rallies in Wisconsin and Michigan were blatantly anti-Semitic. (It should be noted that attacks against Jews—largely verbal but rather menacing—have also been present in reported racist, anti-Semitic, right-wing demonstrations and marches last month in Nashville, Tennessee.)
Harris’ selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to be her running mate can be rationalized from many perspectives as the right choice for her ticket. The fact that there were serious efforts to block Shapiro because of his views on the Gaza War and his outspoken support for Israel’s survival were expressions of clear anti-Semitism. This was precisely because it demonstrated that those who opposed him were doing so strictly because he was Jewish. Shapiro’s detractors did not consider the sharp criticism that Shapiro specifically had commented about the conduct of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his Government.
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