The assassination of the scientific director of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, will affect Iran’s weapons’ development program in numerous ways, although Fakhrizadeh quickly will be replaced by an equally qualified scientist. Fahrizadeh killing as well as the recent death of another leading member of the Iranian nuclear weapons group, undoubtedly will cast a pall on the entire Iranian scientific community.
The Iranian political and military leadership is considering multiple forms of retaliation. One must assume, at the same time, that many of the scientists in the nuclear program already are questioning their personal options, as they consider the fact that they and their families may well become targets for future attacks.
Fakhrizadeh has been a target of the Israelis reportedly since 2014. Assuming that this attack was carried out by Israel, it was an incredibly well-planned assassination, which as former Ambassador Dennis Ross observed, was long-time in the making. The timing, however, does fit both President Donald Trump and Israelis Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s desire to disadvantage the incoming Biden Administration in their interest in re-negotiating U.S. re-engagement in the JCPOA “plus”.
The desire of the Trump Administration to add another stumbling block for President-elect Joe Biden is consistent with how the President has governed for four years. Trump clearly intends to depart by continuing to undermine any accomplishments of the Obama Administration. Whatever coordination there was between the U.S. and Israel and/or the extent to which the U.S. was informed, Netanyahu probably assumed that if he ordered this hit now, it would not get any of the possible pushbacks which he might receive from the new Biden team.
There are positives in the elimination of Fakhrizadeh. In additional to his scientific credentials, he undoubtedly was privy to some of the key Iranian leadership’s nuclear development designs and strategies. It remains to be seen if his death will embolden the Iranians to stiffen their position in a future Biden bid to negotiate American re-enter into the JCPOA.
The Trump Administration as well as the Israelis believe that after the Abraham Accords were signed, this assassination will be well received by the U.A.E., Bahrain, and Sudan as well as the entire Gulf region. This too will hinder Biden’s efforts to establish a diplomatic dialogue with Iran to resist expanding its nuclear weapons program.
The question remains as to whether Prime Minister Netanyahu believes that he will be able to orchestrate U.S. policy after January 20 as effectively as he has done during the Trump years. It is very difficult to discern any effort—beyond the perfunctory—that Bibi is reaching out to commence his relationship with the President-elect on a warm footing. Netanyahu may believe that he still will be able to pull the strings in Washington as he did with Trump and before him with House Speaker John Boehner.
Netanyahu also believes that he will rally right wing American Jews and the Evangelical community to carry his water politically; but Bibi may be in for a big surprise. Even when the Israeli Prime Minister lost the fight with Obama over the nuclear deal, he always believed that the fight was worth it.
In addition to facing a new Biden Administration, Bibi has very serious political problems at home, the coronavirus pandemic, and his own corruption trial which is about to begin. The Iran move at this time was as much for Netanyahu’s followers at home as was his way of offering one more thank-you to Donald Trump.
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